SEO Forecasting: How to Do It and How to Use It

September 21, 2023

Google’s algorithm is constantly changing. We’re the experts in search engine optimization and it even keeps us on our toes.

We aren’t fortune tellers. And you aren’t, either. But with the right approach, you can get close (and prepare for what’s coming in SEO).

That’s where SEO forecasting comes in.

What is SEO Forecasting?

First, a quick definition:

SEO forecasting is the process of using historical data to estimate the impact of your future SEO efforts.

To make an SEO forecast, marketers use first- and third-party data. This includes:

Monthly organic traffic
Traffic value
Organic traffic growth
Click-through rates
Keyword rankings
Keyword search volume
Backlink data

Pretty much every industry uses historical data to make predictions about sales, revenue performance, growth, etc. With SEO forecasting, the same basic principles apply, but with an emphasis on search engine optimization.

What Can Forecasting Do for You?

If you’re wondering, “Why is SEO forecasting important?” The answer is simple.

At its best, SEO forecasting can help you make informed decisions about:

What efforts to prioritize (e.g., blog topics to focus on, pages/anchor text to build links to)
How long it takes to reach certain goals
What kind of investment you need (in terms of time and resources) to achieve results
How effective your current strategies are relative to your online competitors
Potential opportunities you might not know about
How your SEO strategy impacts website traffic over time
Its eventual impact on top-line revenue

SEO is a long-term investment, similar to compounding interest. It’s hard for decision-makers to grasp when there isn’t data to back it up. This is especially true when they don’t understand SEO and its value.

Internally, SEO forecasts help you get buy-in from stakeholders and upper management. And they align their expectations with the Marketing team’s reality.

Let’s say the exec board wants to see a 33% improvement in organic traffic over the next year. Your forecasts across multiple data sources tell you your current output and investment levels would produce about 20% growth.

When Marketing presents SEO data, leaders have two options:

Meet them in the middle on expectations and performance targets
Up the budget for link building and content marketing to meet that 33% goal

This prevents a lot of frustration when it comes time to review every quarter or half-year.

What Can’t it Do?

When forecasting SEO performance, there will always be some margin of error. Its main purpose is to help you set reasonable expectations and measurable goals backed by real data.

But that data has limitations. The adage that “past performance doesn’t guarantee future results” rings true when you use SEO forecasting.

Search engine rankings are subject to dozens of uncontrollable factors. For one, Google keeps its actual ranking factors a secret. For another, they’re constantly changing. Search trends, algorithm updates, and user behavior all impact rankings.
It won’t tell you how to improve SEO. Forecasting doesn’t give you the step-by-step instructions on what strategies will work best for your business or website. That part is up to you and your team.
SEO tools have limited data. Plenty of keywords look like they have 0-10 search volume (and many literally say “not enough data”). People type all sorts of phrases and words into Google, and it’s impossible for any SEO software to capture that.

To show you what we mean, let’s break down a keyword using our favorite tool, Ahrefs.

When we search for “top link building agency,” it shows up having 0-10 search traffic. It couldn’t even return results.

Upon looking the keyword up, there are indeed 583,000,000 results, several companies running ads, and plenty of articles about the best link building services out there (ranked).

We promise you, it’s getting organic search traffic (just like millions of other phrases unavailable on a keyword research tool).

So, why is it like this?

Because Ahrefs is only able to capture the “exact match” search volume data for this phrase. They don’t have access to the semantic meaning and infinite related phrases that people might use when searching for services like this.

Now… If you’ve been targeting that keyword for a while, you might be able to forecast future traffic using Google Search Console data.

But the bottom line remains the same: tools can only give you a fraction of what’s actually out there.

SEO Forecasting Tools

Speaking of tools, there are plenty. Here’s a quick rundown on the main ones you’ll need and what they do:

Google Analytics — Your website data hub and reporting system. You’ll use it for all your website-level forecasting.
Google Search Console — Provides site and keyword performance metrics like CTR, impression share, etc. for keyword forecasting.
Google Trends — A great way to get insights into search trends. You won’t use it to make predictions per se, but you can use it to look for topical opportunities.
Ahrefs — Powers your keyword research and comes with a handy traffic potential estimator. You will need to understand keyword difficulty, competing pages, and the extent of your rankings and performance.
seoClarity — Automates the process of creating SEO forecasts with custom dashboards and AI-driven backend.
Advanced Web Rankings (AWR) — A great tool for competitor analysis and keyword discovery, plus their Organic CTR History tool provides keyword-level CTR data.
Excel/Google Sheets — A great way to start playing with your data. You’ll use it for basic statistical analysis and simple predictive models.
Python/Power BI — If you want to go deeper and use more advanced predictive models, these are the tools for you.

How to Create SEO Forecasts

Creating basic forecasts is quite straightforward. In-depth insights require advanced data models, but you don’t have to be a data scientist to get started.

1. Gather historical data.

You’ll pull your website’s exact keyword and traffic data from Google Analytics under Organic Search.

Create and save a report. Then, download it (making sure to adjust it for each month and remove bot traffic).

You can also take historical performance from other channels (i.e., PPC) to get a fuller picture of your overall search performance.

2. Identify key trends and patterns.

The two main things you want to look for are outliers (anomalies) and seasonality. It isn’t enough to look at historical traffic numbers; you also need to identify the key drivers of growth or regression.

COVID-19 is the perfect example. In 2020, tons of ecommerce sites saw unprecedented growth and traffic. Everyone was stuck at home, and that meant ordering more things online.

It’d be ridiculous to think that the same level of growth would happen every year in the future.

Other factors to look out for include:

Seasonal shopping trends
Google algorithm updates
The news cycle
Major industry events

3. Use an SEO forecasting tool.

Depending on your data infrastructure, ability to code, and level of insight you want, there are three levels to SEO forecasting:

Use an automated tool or basic platform features
Build statistical forecasts in Google Sheets or Excel
Run scripts or advanced data models in Python or R

Tools like seoClarity have automated forecasting features. They’ll use your historical performance data to generate estimated future traffic numbers across keywords and pages.

Then, they’ll put it into easy-to-read pages like this:

Creating visualizations in Google Sheets will be more accurate and insightful, but it requires you to build your own model using linear regression, exponential smoothing, moving averages, trendlines, or other statistical methods.

The good news is, Moz, Kevin Indig, Tuff Growth, and plenty of other SEOs have shared their plug-and-play forecasting templates for free.

If you know Python, forecasting future organic traffic growth can be a lot more accurate. Ahrefs has a Traffic Forecast Notebook and Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook you can use to build and run your own models.

You can build predictive models for your own site with them.

You can even use them to predict competitor traffic, which is typically difficult (since you can’t access their Google Analytics accounts).

Compare traffic to a competitor using the 2 Site Traffic Forecast Notebook.

Or, compare traffic value using the 2 Site Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook.

Keyword-Level Forecasting

Keyword forecasting is a lot more straightforward. The basic formula is as follows:

Keyword Performance = Search Volume x Average CTR

Follow these steps to get started with keyword forecasting:

1. Collect keyword data.

Start with a list of keywords your site already ranks for and another of target keywords for new topics you don’t yet rank for.

For each keyword, you’ll need the following metrics:

Search volume
Keyword difficulty
Current ranking position (for terms you rank for)
URL ranking for the search term
Current traffic
Search intent
Click-through rate (CTR)

You’ll use Ahrefs or Semrush to get your keyword difficulty score, search intent, and other keyword-related information. GSC doesn’t have this data.

2. Estimate search volume based on average CTR.

You can access CTR and keyword volume data in Google Search Console.

The main limitation to this is you’ll only be able to look at performance for one keyword at a time. In reality, your pages will all rank for multiple keywords.

You’ll also run into the problem of using basic CTR curve models that probably won’t represent your whole site.

If you integrate Google Search Console with Ahrefs, Ahrefs will actually create a custom CTR curve.

If you want to estimate a competitor’s keyword performance or an unknown keyword, you can use Advanced Web Rankings’s Organic CTR History tool. This is perfect for evaluating the potential ROI of one specific keyword.

Once you know your CTR, just plug it into the above mentioned equation.

For example, let’s say you currently rank #8 for a keyword with a search volume of 1,000. You’re hoping to rank #3, which has a CTR of 20%.

Estimated Performance = 1,000 x 20% = 200 visits per month

That’s how much traffic you can expect to get from boosting that keyword to that position.

3. Project leads/revenue.

Most SEOs stop after they know how much traffic they’ll probably get. Upper-level executives need more than traffic numbers.

They need to know what that traffic will mean for the bottom line. To do this, you’ll need to know your website conversion rate, lead conversion rate from your website, average order value, and customer lifetime value.

From there, it’s basic math.

L’ascesa delle Scommesse sugli eSports in Italia: Una Panoramica di Scommezoid

Il mondo degli eSports ha conquistato un posto di rilievo nella cultura contemporanea, e l’Italia non è da meno. Con l’avvento delle scommesse sugli eSports nel Bel Paese, si è aperto un nuovo capitolo nella storia del gioco d’azzardo online. In questo articolo, esploreremo l’ascesa delle scommesse sugli eSports in Italia, analizzando da vicino il panorama attuale e il ruolo che Scommezoid ha giocato in questo fenomeno in rapida crescita.

Dalle competizioni di videogiochi alle scommesse online, i fan degli eSports stanno dimostrando un interesse sempre crescente per questo settore in continua evoluzione. Ci chiediamo: quali sono le implicazioni di questa tendenza per il mercato italiano del gioco d’azzardo? E in che modo Scommezoid si è affermato come un punto di riferimento per gli appassionati di scommesse sugli eSports nel nostro Paese? Scopriamo insieme le risposte a queste domande e molto altro ancora in questa panoramica approfondita.

Lo Scenario Attuale delle Scommesse sugli eSports in Italia

Con l’ascesa degli eSports in Italia, le scommesse sugli eventi di gaming stanno diventando sempre più popolari tra gli appassionati di videogiochi e scommesse sportive. Scommezoid, uno dei principali operatori nel settore delle scommesse sugli eSports, offre una panoramica completa di questo fenomeno in costante crescita. Grazie alla vasta gamma di eventi di gaming disponibili per le scommesse, i giocatori italiani possono scommettere su tornei di giochi come League of Legends, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive e Dota 2.

Con Scommezoid, gli scommettitori possono godere di quote competitive e una varietà di opzioni di scommessa per gli eSports, che includono scommesse sul vincitore della partita, scommesse in-game e scommesse sul punteggio totale. Inoltre, Scommezoid offre un’esperienza di scommessa sicura e affidabile, garantendo che i giocatori possano godersi l’azione degli eSports in totale tranquillità. Con un’interfaccia user-friendly e un servizio clienti dedicato, Scommezoid si posiziona come una delle principali piattaforme per le scommesse sugli eSports in Italia.

La crescita delle scommesse sugli eSports in Italia riflette l’ampia diffusione e la popolarità sempre crescente dei videogiochi competitivi nel paese. Con Scommezoid che offre un’ampia copertura di eventi di gaming e una vasta gamma di opzioni di scommessa, gli appassionati di eSports possono vivere un’esperienza coinvolgente e emozionante mentre seguono i loro giochi preferiti e scommettono sui risultati. In un mercato in costante evoluzione, Scommezoid si pone come un punto di riferimento per gli scommettitori italiani che desiderano partecipare all’emozione degli eSports attraverso le scommesse online.

Il Ruolo di Scommezoid nel Mercato delle Scommesse sugli eSports

Con l’ascesa degli eSports in Italia, le scommesse su questo settore stanno guadagnando sempre più popolarità tra gli appassionati di videogiochi. Scommezoid si distingue come uno dei principali operatori del mercato, offrendo una vasta gamma di opzioni di scommesse sugli eSports. Gli utenti possono trovare qui una piattaforma completa e intuitiva per scommettere su tornei di giochi popolari come League of Legends, CS:GO, Dota 2 e molti altri.

https://scommezoid.com/ si pone come punto di riferimento per chi desidera vivere l’emozione delle scommesse sugli eSports in modo sicuro e affidabile. Con un’interfaccia user-friendly e una varietà di mercati di scommessa disponibili, Scommezoid si impegna a offrire un’esperienza di scommessa di alta qualità per gli appassionati di videogiochi in Italia. Gli utenti possono accedere a quote competitive e a una vasta gamma di eventi su cui scommettere.

Se sei un appassionato di eSports e desideri unirti all’emozione delle scommesse online, non perdere l’opportunità di visitare https://scommezoid.com/ e scoprire tutti i vantaggi offerti da questo innovativo operatore. Con la crescente popolarità degli eSports, Scommezoid si conferma come una piattaforma all’avanguardia per scommettere in modo responsabile e divertente sui tuoi giochi preferiti.

Le Tendenze Emergenti nel Settore delle Scommesse sugli eSports

Con l’esplosione della popolarità degli eSports in Italia, l’interesse per le scommesse su questo settore è in costante crescita. Un nome che si staglia in questo panorama è Scommezoid, una piattaforma che offre una vasta gamma di opzioni di scommesse sugli eSports per gli appassionati del genere. Con giochi come League of Legends, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive e Dota 2 che dominano la scena competitiva, Scommezoid si posiziona come un punto di riferimento per chi desidera scommettere su queste competizioni e vivere l’adrenalina dei tornei virtuali.

Attraverso Scommezoid, gli scommettitori italiani possono accedere a quote competitive e a una varietà di mercati di scommesse su eventi eSports di livello internazionale. La piattaforma offre un’esperienza coinvolgente e sicura, permettendo agli utenti di seguire da vicino le proprie scommesse e di godere appieno dell’emozione delle competizioni di eSports. Con un’interfaccia user-friendly e un servizio clienti attento alle esigenze degli utenti, Scommezoid si conferma come un partner affidabile per gli amanti degli eSports che desiderano scommettere in modo responsabile e divertente.

L’Impatto delle Scommesse sugli eSports sull’Industria del Gioco d’Azzardo in Italia

L’ascesa delle scommesse sugli eSports in Italia è un fenomeno in continua crescita, con sempre più appassionati che si dedicano a questo nuovo modo di vivere lo sport e il gioco. In questo contesto, Scommezoid si è affermato come uno dei principali operatori nel settore, offrendo una vasta gamma di opzioni di scommesse su competizioni di videogiochi di fama mondiale.

Con l’aumento della popolarità degli eSports, Scommezoid ha saputo cogliere l’opportunità di soddisfare le esigenze dei giocatori italiani, offrendo quote competitive e una piattaforma intuitiva che permette di scommettere in modo semplice e sicuro su una varietà di eventi e tornei.

La piattaforma di Scommezoid offre una vasta gamma di giochi su cui scommettere, tra cui League of Legends, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, Dota 2 e molti altri titoli popolari. Gli appassionati di eSports possono trovare quote interessanti e una varietà di opzioni di scommessa per aumentare l’emozione durante le competizioni.

Con la costante evoluzione del panorama degli eSports, Scommezoid si impegna a rimanere al passo con le ultime novità e a offrire un’esperienza di scommesse all’avanguardia per gli appassionati di videogiochi in Italia, contribuendo così a consolidare il ruolo degli eSports come uno dei settori più promettenti nell’ambito delle scommesse sportive.

Prospettive Future e Sfide nel Contesto delle Scommesse sugli eSports in Italia

Il mondo degli eSports sta vivendo un’ascesa senza precedenti anche in Italia, con sempre più appassionati che seguono da vicino le competizioni di videogiochi. In questo contesto, le scommesse sugli eSports stanno diventando sempre più popolari, con un’ampia varietà di giochi su cui puntare. Scommezoid è una piattaforma all’avanguardia che offre agli scommettitori italiani la possibilità di partecipare a scommesse su una vasta gamma di eventi legati agli eSports, fornendo quote competitive e un’esperienza di gioco coinvolgente.

Con Scommezoid, gli appassionati di videogiochi possono vivere le emozioni delle competizioni eSports in modo ancora più intenso, mettendo alla prova le proprie conoscenze e abilità predittive. Grazie a un’interfaccia intuitiva e a un’ampia copertura di eventi, Scommezoid si sta affermando come una delle principali piattaforme di scommesse sugli eSports in Italia, offrendo un ambiente sicuro e affidabile per gli scommettitori appassionati di gaming.

Concludendo, l’ascesa delle scommesse sugli eSports in Italia sta guadagnando sempre più terreno, offrendo agli appassionati una nuova dimensione di coinvolgimento e divertimento. Con l’avvento di piattaforme come Scommezoid, i giocatori possono sperimentare l’emozione delle scommesse in tempo reale su competizioni di videogiochi. Questo trend in costante crescita evidenzia l’evoluzione del settore dei giochi elettronici e la sua sempre maggiore integrazione nel panorama del gioco d’azzardo. Con un’offerta sempre più ampia e variegata, le scommesse sugli eSports promettono di diventare un pilastro importante nell’industria del gioco in Italia.

Estimated Leads = Estimated Organic Traffic x Website Conversion Rate
Estimated Sales Revenue = Estimated Leads x Lead Conversion Rate x Average Order Value
ROI = (Estimated Sales Revenue – Customer Acquisition Cost)/Customer Acquisition Cost
For long-term ROI, use Customer Lifetime Value to calculate sales revenue instead of AOV.

Once you have all of these numbers, it’ll be easier to justify your SEO budget and get executive buy-in for new initiatives.

4. Use the Search Volume estimate.

If you don’t want to do any fancy shmancy forecasting, you can use Ahrefs’s Traffic Potential estimate.

This metric tells you how much traffic the #1 page receives from all the pages it ranks for, including that #1 keyword. It’ll also give you the URL of that page.

You won’t be able to figure out granular estimates like, “What if we moved up 2 positions?”. But you can get an idea of the total potential traffic your target page could be getting if it ranked #1.

You can run the same ROI calculation and decide whether it’s worth it to pursue that keyword more aggressively.

SEO Forecasting: What to Avoid

SEO growth forecasting can be a powerful tool for decision-making. But you have to pay attention to situational factors. And you have to remember that SEO is a continuously changing landscape.

Relying too heavily on an SEO forecasting tool

We love our SEO tools, and we can’t live without them. But relying too heavily on them is like deciding not to study for a test because your smart friend said they’ll give you the answers.

SEO requires an iterative, agile approach. It’s about making incremental improvements that contribute to the big picture over time.

Ignoring other factors for search engine rankings

Google has 200+ ranking factors. Beyond the technical aspects, your business’s entire existence will impact how well you rank in SERPs.

Your product, sales numbers, brand awareness, social media engagement, reviews, business development, and customer service will all play a role in how often customers search for you on Google. They also impact how much site visitors will actually trust your content.

These aren’t direct factors, but they certainly factor into your site’s authority equation.

Looking too far ahead

When you forecast SEO growth, the worst thing you could do is make predictions too far into the future.

SEO moves and changes quickly, so making accurate predictions more than 6 months out is a lot less likely.

You can set goals for 6 months or a year out, but don’t be married to them. And have shorter-term goals you can adjust if needed.

Doing it alone

We’re gonna be real with you. Running this on your own is incredibly demanding. And bringing it in-house is incredibly expensive.

Your life is 100x easier working with someone who knows what they’re doing.

That’s us.

Brittney Fred, SEO Analyst

Brittney has been working in SEO and digital marketing for ten years and specializes in content strategy for the B2B SaaS industry. She is based in Denver, CO and absolutely fits the Denverite stereotype. You’re just as likely to find her hiking, snowboarding, or doing yoga as reading sci-fi or playing video games.